Integrating Long and Short‐Term Time Dependencies in Simulation‐Based Seismic Hazard Assessments

Conventional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only considers mainshock events and uses a time-independent earthquake rupture forecast to describe the occurrence of mainshocks. This approach neglects long-term time-dependency mainshocks on specific fault segments, interaction adjacent faults, spatial temporal clustering aftershocks. study integrates recently proposed advanced fault-based PSHA framework with an aftershock simulator based Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, overcome aforementioned limitations. Central Italy is used as case illustrate framework. The case-study curves show that including state-of-the-art advances in may increase ground-motion amplitudes for low return periods, decrease high relative conventional approach. magnitude estimate increases due inclusion dependent selected site period. Sensitivity analyses results demonstrate that: (a) close modeled high-return-period estimates are more affected by fault-related inputs than inclusion; (b) influence higher periods ones; (c) away from aftershocks greatly affects variance results; (d) has limited effect compared other inputs. could help future implementation complex modeling approaches risk models.